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URG — URG

7.31% of the book · -19.22% since entry · entered 2026-04

Sits on

Listing Note

Dual-listed: Primary on NYSE American as URG. Also on TSX as URE.TO. US SEC filings are authoritative (10-K, 10-Q). Canadian cross-listing filings on SEDAR+. Wyoming-focused operations; corporate headquarters Littleton, Colorado.

Q1 2026 print integration -- 2026-05-28

The Q1 2026 10-Q (data/company_doc_summaries/URG/0001104659-26-057462.json, filed 2026-05-08) and FY2025 10-K (data/company_doc_summaries/URG/0001104659-26-025923.json, filed 2026-03-10) atoms contain material structural detail the wiki did not previously carry. The original 2026-05-12 wiki creation predated full atom integration; this section closes that gap.

Leadership change. Matthew D. Gili was appointed CEO and President effective December 13, 2025, succeeding John W. Cash (retired; remains as Chairman and strategic advisor). Less than 6 months in role at this writing. The FY2025 10-K elevates "succession planning execution" as a modified risk factor and names new VP Finance Jade Walle and incoming General Counsel Alex Ritchie as parallel transitions. New-CEO execution risk is the operative read.

2026 delivery schedule is heavily back-loaded. Q1 (delivered): 55,000 lbs; Q2: 215,000 lbs; Q3: 190,000 lbs; Q4: 840,000 lbs (65% of the year). Total FY2026: 1,300,000 lbs at average ~$63/lb blended = approximately $82M revenue guidance. The Q1 print (4.2% of annual deliveries) is not representative of the run-rate; quarterly prints H1 will look weak and Q4 will compress more than 50% of annual revenue into a single quarter. Source: 10-Q MD&A pp. 35, 45.

Contract book structure. Eight customer counterparties with base annual deliveries 800,000-1,400,000 lbs/yr from 2026-2030, plus 100,000 lbs in each of 2032-2033 (gap year 2031). Total remaining base commitment: 5,750,000 lbs across 2026-2033. Of FY2026's 1,300,000 lbs, 1,090,000 (84%) are under 2022-2023 vintage base-escalated contracts negotiated when the long-term uranium price was $43-$57/lb. The remaining 16% (~210,000 lbs) are 2024-vintage market-linked contracts -- floors ~$80/lb, ceilings ~$120/lb -- which generated the Q1 2026 realized price of $70.98/lb. As legacy 2022-2023 contracts roll off (specific year-by-year roll-off not disclosed), 2024+ vintage contracts at higher pricing replace them. Constellation Energy is the one publicly named customer; the other seven are unnamed. Source: 10-K Looking Ahead section, 10-Q MD&A p. 35.

Trump-administration regulatory tailwinds in URG's own risk-factor language. The FY2025 10-K Item 1A risk factors explicitly cite three policy events as constructive: (1) Executive Order 14300 (May 2025) mandating wholesale revision of NRC regulations and potential reconsideration of the linear-no-threshold radiation model and ALARA standard; (2) National Energy Emergency declaration (May 2025) under which DOI emergency alternative arrangements allow expedited NEPA review (~14-day EA, ~28-day EIS) for eligible energy projects; (3) BLM Greater Sage-Grouse Resource Management Plan Amendments finalized December 2025, including a Wyoming-specific amendment that reduces federal ESA listing risk on URG's Wyoming permitting. These policy tailwinds are documented in URG's own SEC risk-factor deltas, not aggregator speculation.

Shirley Basin operations commenced 2026-04-23. Header House 1-1 was brought online and initial uranium extraction operations began on this date. The pre-operational NRC/state inspection required to authorize transport of U3O8-loaded resin from Shirley Basin to Lost Creek for processing is expected "summer 2026." The wiki's prior framing of Shirley Basin as a pending FID is superseded -- FID was made, construction completed, operations commenced. Combined Lost Creek + Shirley Basin near-term production target stated by management: "two million pounds."

Lost Creek production accelerating. Q1 2026: 110,314 lbs captured (+48% YoY vs Q1 2025's 74,479 lbs; +41% sequentially vs Q4 2025's 78,177 lbs); equivalent to 36.8% of 1.2M lb licensed wellfield capacity at annualized rates. April 2026 exit rate: 57,000+ lbs drummed = ~57% of licensed annualized. Bottleneck is iron mineralization causing fines in the processing circuit; sand filtration upgrade Q2 2026 plus full wastewater treatment upgrade (Q4 2026 construction start, 2027 completion, $25M estimated cost) are addressing it. 15 header houses and 15 drill rigs active.

Convertible note structure and dilution geometry. December 2025: $120M aggregate principal of 4.75% Convertible Senior Notes due January 15, 2031; conversion price approximately $1.73/share (27.5% premium to December 10, 2025 NYSE American close). Capped call options purchased for approximately $16.6M at a $2.72 cap (100% premium to same reference price). Full conversion would issue up to 69.4M new shares = 17.5% dilution at the current 397.3M outstanding base; capped call hedges URG up to $2.72/share. Above $2.72, every share converted is fully dilutive. The $1.73 conversion price coincidentally aligns with the portfolio's weighted-average cost basis from the April-May 2026 ramp -- the offense-priority accumulation zone landed at the institutional smart-money entry price.

ATM facility refreshed and untapped. April 16, 2026: $50M of common shares authorized for sale through B. Riley Securities and Cantor Fitzgerald under a new $300M universal shelf registration declared effective the same day. Not utilized in Q1 2026. Equity-raise optionality preserved but not exercised; this is signal -- management is not pressuring the stock with dilution despite the cash burn trajectory.

Cash trajectory and 2026 capex. End 2024: $87.1M. End 2025: $135.3M. End Q1 2026: $135.7M. End April 2026: $107.5M (-$28.2M in April alone). FY2026 capex plan: $25.5M Shirley Basin (incl. $10.9M spent Q1, $14.6M remaining) plus the previously-unreported $25M Lost Creek wastewater treatment facility. Total 2026 capex roughly $50M against ~$107M April cash, with H2 delivery revenue (~$50-60M concentrated in Q4) the cash-flow inflection. If revenue prints as scheduled, no equity raise needed; if any of Shirley Basin permitting, Lost Creek production ramp, or Q4 delivery execution slips, the ATM is the safety net.

PFIC tax caveat for US shareholders. URG is incorporated in Canada under the Canada Business Corporations Act. The Canadian parent has no employees; all 157 operational staff sit in US subsidiaries (30 Ur-Energy USA; 83 Lost Creek ISR LLC; 44 Pathfinder Mines Corporation / Shirley Basin). The FY2025 10-K explicitly states URG "may be a PFIC for the period ended December 31, 2025." Passive Foreign Investment Company classification creates ordinary-income treatment of gains (vs LTCG) and mark-to-market election requirements for US shareholders. Not catastrophic and common to Canadian-listed names, but worth tracking and discussing with a CPA before any exit transaction.

FY2025 context. Sales $27.2M (440,000 lbs at $61.77/lb vs FY2024's 570,000 lbs at $58.15/lb). Gross profit $74K (break-even on sales basis). Operating loss $69.4M -- of which $54.4M was development expense flowed through the income statement under URG's "exploration stage issuer" SEC classification (a production-stage issuer would have capitalized most of this). Net loss $74.9M. Lost Creek FY2025 production: 370,893 lbs captured (+40% YoY); average wellfield flow rate +69% YoY. Cumulative Lost Creek production since 2013: 3.475M lbs. Aggregate Measured + Indicated resource (Lost Creek + Shirley Basin combined): 20.98M lbs U3O8; Inferred: 10.36M lbs.

Net read. The "torque on uranium spot" framing is directionally correct but mechanically time-delayed: 2026 realized pricing is anchored at $63/lb blended via the 2022-2023 contract vintage that represents 84% of 2026 deliveries. Stage 1 torque (the 16% market-linked tranche participating in spot above $80) is already firing. Stage 2 torque (legacy contracts rolling off, replaced by 2024+ vintage at materially better pricing) fires on a schedule that is not publicly disclosed but extends through the 5.75M lb commitment book ending 2033. Equity continues to leverage uranium spot because markets price forward expectations; cash flow lags spot by ~$22/lb on the legacy book until roll-off.

One-line thesis

Pure-play US domestic uranium ISR extractor with no REE or gold diversification; current-period pricing governed by 2022-2023 vintage term contracts (84% of FY2026 deliveries at $43-57/lb LT base, blended $63/lb realized) with re-rating expected 2028-2030 as the legacy contract book rolls off and is replaced by 2024+ vintage pricing at $80+/lb floors. T1 by sizing aggressiveness; long-cycle 2028-2030 by realistic thesis horizon -- not a near-term torque vehicle.

Time horizon and disposition -- 2026-05-28

This is a 2028-2030 play, not a 2026-2027 growth candidate. The thesis re-rating fires as legacy 2022-2023 vintage contracts roll off and are replaced by 2024+ vintage pricing -- a process that is not publicly disclosed by year but extends through the 5.75M lb commitment book ending 2033. Through 2026-2027 the realized price is mechanically anchored near $63/lb blended via the 84% legacy contract weight; the equity is expected to trade range-bound through that window.

Realistic outcome framing. Approximately 2x return on cost basis over the 2028-2030 horizon, as Shirley Basin ramps to commercial scale, Lost Creek hits or approaches its 1.2M lb licensed wellfield capacity, and the contract book turns over to current-vintage pricing. Higher-multiple outcomes require sustained uranium spot above $100/lb combined with clean operational execution -- optionality, not base case. See the "what URG is worth when the governor comes off" analysis: per-share valuation walks roughly to $2.63 at 25x P/E on $50M normalized net income, $3.68 at 35x, $5.25 at 50x, all on a fully-diluted ~476M share base (current + convert + warrants).

Operational disposition. STCG-locked across all five lots through 2027 -- no trim decisions to make on this position for ~12-15 months minimum. Active monitoring of quarterly prints is not required for position management: the Q2/Q3/Q4 2026 quarterly prints are operational checkpoints (especially Q4 with 65% of the year's deliveries) but do not change the multi-year thesis materially. Recommended posture: park until 2028. Re-engage when the legacy contract roll-off becomes visible in realized pricing (likely H2 2027 or 2028 quarterly prints showing realized price stepping up toward $75-80+/lb), or when uranium spot crosses a sustained level above $100/lb that materially changes the optionality envelope, or when CEO execution under Matthew Gili produces a verifiable Shirley Basin commercial-scale ramp.

Position

  • T1 aggressive-tranche position; canonical position data lives at data/cost_basis.json (referenced rather than restated; the prior wiki version drifted on this -- five lots accumulated April-May 2026 satisfying Offense Priority #3).
  • All lots STCG-locked through 2027 -- hold-only window.
  • Pure-play US uranium ISR torque vehicle -- moves more violently than UUUU on uranium news because there is no non-uranium revenue diversification.

Thesis (detailed)

Ur-Energy operates the Lost Creek ISR (in-situ recovery) uranium mine in Wyoming and is developing the Shirley Basin project (also Wyoming ISR). Lost Creek is licensed, built, and has produced uranium. ISR is the lowest-cost uranium extraction method -- it avoids conventional mining capex by injecting oxygenated water into the ore zone and pumping uranium-bearing solution to surface. No mill required. The combination of operating history, ISR economics, and US-only jurisdiction is the key differentiation in the junior uranium space.

The pure-play character is the investment thesis at the T1 level. When uranium spot moves, UUUU absorbs some of the move through its REE business (which provides a floor) but also dilutes the uranium upside. URG has no such diversification -- it is 100% uranium price leverage. A move from $65 to $80/lb uranium spot would materially improve URG's economics and likely re-rate the stock more aggressively than diversified names. That torque is the reason for the T1 tranche classification even at a small absolute position size.

The macro driver is identical to UUUU and DNN: global uranium supply deficit, long-term utility contracts peaking ~2030, Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act removing Russian supply, domestic energy security legislation (Inflation Reduction Act, DOE nuclear programs) pulling demand forward. Lost Creek is uniquely positioned as a permitted, near-production domestic asset. Analyst consensus is Strong Buy; mean target $2.21 (7 analysts, yfinance), high target $2.75. Current price $1.90 = 16% below mean, 45% below high target.

Unlike DNN (Athabasca Basin, development-stage project) and UUUU (larger, diversified), URG is the highest-risk, highest-torque, most-liquid junior uranium name in the mining layer. If uranium rips, URG leads. If uranium collapses, URG falls hardest. Size accordingly.

Recent catalysts (60-day rolling)

  • 2026-05-13 to 2026-05-22: three additional sub-$2 tranches added closing the Offense Priority #3 target
  • 2026-05-11: +7.3% intraday (intraday high $2.05, range $1.64-$2.05) -- broad uranium sector move; 48-hour correlation data shows 41.4x and 42.2x volume spikes at 11am and 1pm ET suggesting institutional rebalancing
  • 2026-05-08: UUUU and URG both moved on broad uranium sector momentum following geopolitical developments (Hormuz/China REE policy per PORTFOLIO_CONTEXT)

  • 2026-04-20: +6.2% on 22.8M vol (2.5x avg) -- uranium sector recovery; second-highest vol day in 60-day window

  • 2026-03-20: Largest volume day in YTD 2026: 45.1M shares (5.1x avg), +7.4% intraday -- most likely sector catalyst; context: same day DNN and UUUU also had elevated volume. Probable shared catalyst (uranium news, policy announcement, or spot price move). Exact catalyst couldn't verify without NewsPlanet or news-check.

  • 2026-03-16: -8.3% on 19.4M vol (2.2x avg) -- sell-off before the March 20 recovery; classic washout before bounce pattern

Note: URG's 52-week high was $2.35 on Oct 15, 2025 (pre-portfolio entry). Current price $1.90 is 19.1% below that high. The 52-week low was $0.67 -- the April 2026 portfolio entry sat near the 2026 YTD low.

Risks / What would break the thesis

  • Uranium spot price sustained decline below $50/lb -- ISR economics at Lost Creek become marginal; company has $123.9M cash vs $84.9M debt (yfinance) but cash burn accelerates at low prices
  • Production delay or operational problem at Lost Creek -- ISR wells can experience reduced recovery rates; water table issues or aquifer contamination claims would be catastrophic for a single-asset operator
  • Wyoming regulatory action -- state-level environmental challenge to ISR operations; low probability but specific to Wyoming's political environment
  • Dilution: 397.3M shares outstanding plus 17.5% conversion overhang from December 2025 $120M / $1.73-strike convertible notes (capped call hedged to $2.72; above $2.72 fully dilutive). Sub-$2 stock means any ATM tap is at a depressed price; ATM authorized to $50M April 2026 and not yet utilized. Monitor S-3 shelf and any 424B5 supplements -- see Q1 2026 integration section above.
  • Shirley Basin development schedule slippage -- operations commenced 2026-04-23 but pre-operational regulatory inspection for resin transport is the next gate (summer 2026). Inspection slip would delay processing-stage uranium recognition.
  • Pure-play amplification risk: if uranium falls hard, URG falls harder than UUUU or DNN. No REE floor, no royalty income, no by-product credits.
  • CEO succession execution risk -- Matthew Gili promoted to CEO December 13, 2025; less than 6 months in role at this writing. URG's own 10-K elevates this as a modified risk factor.
  • PFIC tax classification risk -- Canadian-incorporated parent; FY2025 10-K explicitly flags URG "may be a PFIC." Mark-to-market election + ordinary-income treatment for US shareholders; consult CPA before any exit transaction.
  • H2 2026 execution concentration -- 65% of FY2026 delivery commitment lands in Q4; Lost Creek + Shirley Basin combined production must scale through H2 to meet the Q4 delivery slug without further uranium borrowing. Slippage triggers ATM use or another inventory loan.

Triggers

  • DO NOT TRIM any lot before 2027 (STCG -- all five lots; latest unlock 2027-05-22)

  • Watch: Q2 2026 earnings (Aug 2026 expected per cadence) -- second quarter of CEO Gili's tenure; first quarter with possible Shirley Basin resin shipments to Lost Creek post-summer inspection

  • Watch: Q3 2026 production print -- Lost Creek iron-mineralization bottleneck resolution (sand filtration Q2 install) should show in Q3 captured pounds; if July-Sept production does not step materially above April's 57K/month exit rate, the bottleneck thesis is in question
  • Watch: Q4 2026 delivery print (the operational make-or-break) -- 840,000 lbs concentrated in a single quarter; first quarterly print under Gili that compresses 65% of annual revenue. Execution here defines the FY2026 narrative
  • Watch: Uranium spot price crossing $100/lb sustained -- the 23% market-linked tranche of 2026 deliveries (~210K lbs) participates above $80/lb floor; sustained spot above $100 begins to test the $120 ceiling
  • Watch: Shirley Basin resin transport authorization (summer 2026 NRC/state pre-operational inspection)
  • Watch: ATM utilization signal -- $50M facility refreshed April 16, 2026 and not yet tapped; any 424B5 filing or quarterly disclosure of ATM share sales is the cash-runway stress signal
  • Watch: US utility procurement announcements -- any public utility announcing domestic uranium sourcing contracts benefits URG disproportionately vs diversified names

External authoritative sources

Open questions / hypotheses

  1. What was the catalyst for the March 20, 2026 volume spike (45.1M shares, 5.1x avg)? The same day DNN and UUUU also had elevated volume, suggesting a shared sector catalyst (spot price, policy, or institutional rebalancing). Identifying this would clarify whether the thesis is being validated by institutional buying or is just sector ETF flow.
  2. [ANSWERED 2026-05-28 -- see Q1 2026 integration section] Lost Creek Q1 2026 captured 110,314 lbs = 36.8% of 1.2M licensed; April exit rate 57% annualized. Acceleration trajectory documented; iron-mineralization bottleneck is the constraint, sand filtration + wastewater treatment in flight.
  3. [ANSWERED 2026-05-28 -- see Q1 2026 integration section] Shirley Basin FID made; construction complete; operations commenced 2026-04-23. Resin transport regulatory inspection summer 2026 is the remaining gate.
  4. [ANSWERED 2026-05-28 -- see Q1 2026 integration section] URG sells exclusively under term contracts (zero spot exposure for 2026). 84% of 2026 deliveries are 2022-2023 vintage base-escalated at $43-57/lb LT pricing; 16% are 2024-vintage market-linked with floors ~$80, ceilings ~$120.
  5. YTD 2026 beta appears empirically higher than the reported 0.915 (yfinance). Several days show 7-8% moves on moderate volume. The reported beta may be calculated against a broad index rather than uranium spot. Worth tracking the actual realized volatility vs reported beta.
  6. Year-by-year contract vintage roll-off schedule. The 10-K discloses 5.75M lbs across 2026-2033 with annual base 800K-1.4M lbs but does not break out which legacy 2022-2023 contracts deliver in which years, or when each rolls off. The torque-timing on Stage 2 (legacy contracts replaced by 2024+ vintage pricing) depends on this schedule. Likely structurally undisclosed due to utility customer confidentiality.
  7. Customer concentration percentages. 8 customers named in aggregate; only Constellation Energy named individually. >10% customer threshold disclosure unclear from atom summaries -- check Q1 2026 10-Q financial statement notes (not legibly extracted in atom).
  8. April 2026 burn rate sustainability. April alone burned $28.2M against $107.5M ending cash. Is this Shirley Basin commissioning peak-spending or steady-state? Q2 2026 print is the read.
  9. PFIC determination final status for FY2025. URG's "may be a PFIC" caveat -- when does a definitive determination come (typically in the proxy or a separate 8-K with the QEF/MTM disclosure for US shareholders)? Material for tax planning ahead of any exit.

Decision log

  • 2026-04: Thesis entry near the 2026 YTD low.
  • 2026-05: Position scaled to full intended T1 allocation.
  • 2026-05-12: Wiki page created. Thesis intact. DO NOT TRIM until May 2027.
  • 2026-05-13 to 2026-05-22: Three additional sub-$2 tranches executed to satisfy the Offense Priority #3 target; the 2026-05-12 "full intended T1 allocation" framing was extended by the subsequently-published offense priority list. Position at intended T1 size 2026-05-22.
  • 2026-05-27: Wiki refresh -- Position section migrated to defer to data/cost_basis.json per the referential-discipline rule (same pattern applied to HL.md the same session). Five-lot detail captured; Offense Priority #3 SATISFIED flag set; STCG profile updated to reflect all five lots. Thesis, tranche, and triggers unchanged. Open questions #1-#5 remain live and are queued for follow-on URG enrichment work (Q1 2026 print integration, contract-book detail, peer comp vs DNN/UUUU/EU/PENMF).
  • 2026-05-28: Atom-integration enrichment. Added "Q1 2026 print integration" dated section folding the FY2025 10-K and Q1 2026 10-Q atom findings: CEO succession (Gili replaced Cash 2025-12-13); back-loaded delivery schedule (Q4 = 65% of FY2026); contract book detail (8 customers, 5.75M lbs through 2033, 84% of 2026 under 2022-2023 legacy pricing); Trump-administration policy tailwinds in URG's own risk-factor language; Shirley Basin operations commencement 2026-04-23; Lost Creek production trajectory; $120M convert structure with $1.73 strike alignment to portfolio WAC; refreshed ATM ($50M) untapped; April cash burn; $25M Lost Creek wastewater capex; PFIC caveat for US shareholders. Risks section expanded (CEO succession, PFIC, H2 execution concentration). Triggers section updated (Q3/Q4 prints flagged; ATM utilization signal added). Open questions 2, 3, 4 marked ANSWERED; questions 6-9 newly added. Position section, thesis, and tranche unchanged. Underlying research artifact: project/research/urg_q1_2026_research_2026-05-27.md; underlying atoms: data/company_doc_summaries/URG/0001104659-26-025923.json (10-K) and 0001104659-26-057462.json (10-Q).
  • 2026-05-28: Thesis-horizon reframing. One-line thesis rewritten to explicitly tag the long-cycle 2028-2030 nature of the re-rating trigger (legacy contract roll-off). Added "Time horizon and disposition" dated section capturing the realistic outcome framing (~2x cost basis over 2028-2030 base case; sustained $100+/lb uranium spot as optionality), the per-share valuation walk at varying P/E assumptions on $50M normalized net income, and the explicit "park until 2028" operational disposition. The earlier framing of URG as "maximum torque to uranium spot price" was structurally misaligned with the term-contracted reality the atom-integration surfaced. T1 tranche classification preserved (sizing aggressiveness is unchanged), but the time-horizon framing is now explicit. Cross-pointer added to project/docs/PORTFOLIO_CONTEXT.md URG row (description updated) and the Milestone 2 expected-catalysts line (parenthetical noting multi-year primarily-2028-2030 timing, not Milestone 2 gate).